Technology adoption, on a time axis between linear and log

x = (years before 2031)^0.22, labelled in calendar years; y log. Same fitted curve as the other two charts.

source: Same estimates and fit as adoption-one-curve.pages.dev and adoption-years-before-2031.pages.dev (Our World in Data/ITU, World Bank, WHO/UNICEF, GSMA, archaeology refs); AI point = ChatGPT weekly users (OpenAI posts) extended on the fastest trend • transform: x axis: years from each launch to 2031 (the fitted end year), raised to the power 0.22, so it sits between a plain timeline (power 1, old points squashed together) and a log scale (power near 0, recent points squashed together). 0.22 is the power that puts the 22 points closest to evenly spaced along the axis. Labels are calendar years. Same fitted curve: years = A x (2031 - year)^k. Dots = 21 estimates (teal: share of all people; green: share of each year's newborns vaccinated). Bars = range of intro year and of years to majority. Purple diamond = projection, NOT data (it is in the fit). Scroll to zoom. • drawn 2026-10-21 03:23 UTC